WASHINGTON, July 7 (San Diego News Online) — If you live in a coastal area or use seasonal weather outlooks for planning, keep an eye on NOAA’s latest forecasts: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño conditions are present now, has issued an El Niño Advisory, and expects the pattern to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
The agency says the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index is +0.7°C, a sign that sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific are above average. NOAA’s bulletin also reports Niño-4 at +0.7°C and Niño-1+2 at +2.1°C, with above-average water spread across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific over the past month.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is one phase of ENSO, short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the climate cycle that changes ocean temperatures and air patterns across the tropical Pacific. NOAA Climate.gov says El Niño develops when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific stay warmer than average long enough to affect weather patterns. The opposite phase is La Niña, and the middle ground is called ENSO-neutral.
Why forecasters are watching this one
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says model guidance, including the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the NCEP CFSv2 model, points to further strengthening through winter. In its advisory, the center says there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, a level that NOAA says could rank among the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950.
That does not mean every place will feel the same effects. El Niño can shift temperature and rainfall patterns far from the tropical Pacific, but the impacts depend on how strong the event becomes and where someone lives. NOAA’s Ocean Service says El Niño can also raise the risk of high-tide flooding in some U.S. locations.
What to do now
For most readers, the practical step is simple: follow NOAA’s seasonal outlooks and your local weather forecasts through fall and into winter. If you live near the coast, watch for high-tide flooding alerts as the season progresses. If you plan around winter weather, remember that El Niño can tilt the odds, but it does not lock in one outcome for every city or state.
In short, NOAA says El Niño is here, it is likely to strengthen, and the main watch period is the coming winter.
