WASHINGTON, Aug. 1 (DC Times Online) — The National Hurricane Center’s Aug. 1 outlook called for no tropical activity in the Atlantic basin, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the following seven days. For now, people in the United States do not face a named storm threat, but forecasters say conditions can change as the season continues.
The practical step is to keep checking the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook, especially for residents along the Gulf Coast and Southeast coast. A quiet start does not rule out storms later in the season.
Why El Niño matters
El Niño is a warming pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that can change weather around the world. For the Atlantic hurricane season, its main effect is often an increase in winds high above the ocean.
Those winds can create wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction between the lower and upper atmosphere. Strong wind shear can tilt or disrupt a developing storm, making it harder for thunderstorms to organize around a center of circulation.
The Climate Prediction Center and NOAA have said El Niño is strengthening. NOAA projections cited in the reporting indicate that the event could become one of the strongest since records began in 1950. Some forecasts have described the possibility as a record-setting or “Super El Niño,” but the supplied official material does not establish a final ranking or record.
North Carolina State University’s climate office reported in May that waters in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region were warmer than normal. That warmth can provide energy for tropical systems. But the same analysis said a developing El Niño could strengthen upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic.
That creates a competition between two major factors: warm ocean water may support storms, while El Niño-related wind shear may prevent them from forming or growing.
What is happening in the Atlantic?
Several tropical waves were moving west from the African coast into the Main Development Region, a part of the Atlantic where many long-track hurricanes form. The FOX Forecast Center said those waves would have to overcome several obstacles before becoming organized storms.
One obstacle is El Niño-related wind shear. Another is Saharan dust and dry, stable air moving over parts of the tropical Atlantic. Dust can block sunlight near the ocean surface, while dry air can weaken the thunderstorms that tropical systems need.
Sea-surface temperatures remain an important part of the forecast. The FOX Forecast Center said warm water could favor development, but that influence was being offset by hostile winds and other unfavorable conditions.
The National Hurricane Center’s Aug. 1 outlook found no areas of interest and no expected tropical development in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf during the next week. Those forecasts describe the near-term environment; they do not predict that the entire season will remain inactive.
Is the season behind schedule?
The FOX Forecast Center reported that two named storms had formed by July 31, with one in June and one in July. Other accounts in the supplied reporting gave different counts for the first two months, so the total depends on the reporting date and source. The National Hurricane Center’s current outlook, rather than the season’s running total, is the key guide to immediate risk.
Seasonal forecasts also differ. NOAA was reported as forecasting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. Colorado State University forecast 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. AccuWeather forecast eight to 14 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
These are seasonal estimates, not guarantees. They also do not indicate where a storm might strike. A single storm can still cause serious damage even during a season with below-average activity.
What should residents do now?
With no tropical activity expected during the next seven days, there is no storm-specific evacuation or preparation order identified in the supplied information. Residents can still take routine steps before the season becomes more active:
- Check the National Hurricane Center’s outlook regularly when a tropical wave approaches.
- Review evacuation routes and emergency contacts.
- Check supplies such as water, medicines, flashlights and batteries.
- Follow instructions from local emergency officials if a storm threat develops.
The current message is not that the Atlantic season is over. It is that El Niño, wind shear, Saharan dust and dry air are suppressing development for now. Warm Atlantic waters remain a reason for forecasters to keep watching the basin, particularly as tropical waves move west from Africa and as the season progresses.
